Willow Grove crime rate and Crime Score · Victoria
Willow Grove is a suburb in the Baw Baw council area of Victoria (about 62,784 residents in the council). The council has a Crime Score 62 out of 100 (high), 113th of 362 councils nationally.
Modelled estimate, not police figures: Willow Grove (654 residents at the 2021 Census) is estimated to account for about 37 of the offences recorded each year in the Baw Baw council area (likely 18 to 61), roughly 5,600 per 100,000 residents, including about 5 violent offences (likely 1 to 8). Ranges are 80% intervals; confidence 44 of 100. The estimate shares the council's published total (2025-26, three-year average) between its suburbs using a model trained on South Australia's suburb-level police data and ABS measures of each suburb's population and socio-economic profile.
The score blends national percentile ranks for each published offence category with fixed severity weights; here it is driven most by sexual offences (95th percentile), assault (49th percentile), homicide (71st percentile). Five years earlier the same basis gave 64.
In 2024-25: violent 2,020 per 100,000 (+122% vs five years earlier); property 4,179 per 100,000 (-2% vs five years earlier); break-ins 565 per 100,000 (-34% vs five years earlier); theft 2,058 per 100,000 (-2% vs five years earlier). For violent crime that is 7th of 79 Victoria councils with data, highest first.
Unemployment in the Baw Baw council area is 3.8% (Victoria 5%), Census, 10 August 2021. Social housing makes up 1.5% of occupied homes (293 public and 39 community-housing dwellings at the 2021 Census; Victoria 2.5%). An estimated 141 people were homeless on Census night 2021, 23.8 per 10,000 residents (Victoria 47.1), apportioned from ABS Statistical Area Level 2 counts. 12.8% of residents were born overseas (Victoria 31.6%), most often in England, New Zealand, Netherlands. Modelled estimates for 2026-27, not measurements: unemployment about 4.3% (confidence 83 of 100); social housing about 1.4% of homes; about 23.4 homeless people per 10,000 residents; about 13% born overseas. Confidence falls with distance from the last published figure, and the map's Estimates toggle shows every year back to 1994-95.
Victoria publishes crime statistics by council area, not by suburb, so the figures shown for Willow Grove are those of the Baw Baw council area.
Figures are for 2024-25, the latest year Victoria has published; some other states have released 2025-26.
| Offences | Per 100,000 | Count | 5-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violent | 2,020 | 1,268 | +122% |
| Property | 4,179 | 2,624 | -2% |
| Break-ins | 565 | 355 | -34% |
| Theft | 2,058 | 1,292 | -2% |
How suburb estimates are made, and how accurate they are.
Baw Baw council area: full statistics · Interactive map of every council.
Crime in postcode 3825: every suburb and council it covers.
Questions
Is Willow Grove safe?
Victoria publishes crime figures by council area, not by suburb. Willow Grove is in the Baw Baw council area, which recorded 2,020 violent offences per 100,000 residents in 2024-25, about 91% higher than the Victoria rate (1,060) and about 66% higher than the national rate (1,220). A modelled estimate for Willow Grove itself is roughly 5,600 offences of all kinds per 100,000 residents a year (an estimate, not police figures). These are offences recorded by police per resident: they describe the area as a whole, not the risk on any particular street, and places with a busy centre record more because offences are counted where they happen.
Nearby suburbs
Amor · Brandy Creek · Bravington · Buln Buln · Childers · Cloverlea · Crossover · Darnum · Ellinbank · Ferndale · Fumina South · Gainsborough · Hill End · Lardner · Moe · Moondarra · Narracan · Newborough · Nilma North · Rokeby · Tanjil · Tanjil South · Thorpdale · Thorpdale South · Toongabbie · Trafalgar · Trafalgar East · Trafalgar South · Walhalla East · Warragul West
australiancrimerate.com.au/suburb/vic/willow-grove/ · Australian Crime Map